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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still