Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
