Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
